Published: March 12, 2010

RIYADH: Gulf states are worried about Iran going nuclear, but equally fret about a dangerous confrontation that could arise from more sanctions and military threats against Tehran, analysts say.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was in the Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday seeking support for a new round of UN sanctions to press Tehran to halt its drive to acquire nuclear weapons capability.

Gates told Saudi King Abdullah, Crown Prince and Defence Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, and other top security officials that Iran had “largely rebuffed” US overtures for a conciliatory dialogue, and that Washington was now focused on ramping up pressure on Tehran, according to a US defence official. Gates was only the latest of several high level US visitors, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Energy Secretary Steven Chu, who have pounded the path to Riyadh to sell Saudi leaders on more pressure on Tehran.

But Saudis and other Gulf states remain dubious about whether heightened economic sanctions would be supported by enough countries to be effective, and whether they would have the right impact on Tehran. “We have a shared interest in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power,” said Mustafa Alani, research director at the Gulf Research Centre, a Dubai think-tank. However, he said, “We don’t recognise economic sanctions as going to change the Iranians’ mind.”

“If there are sanctions, it will accelerate their nuclear programme.”

Gulf states support is crucial, both to put real economic pressure on Iran — through trade and financial measures — and to ensure no disruption to global energy needs by a possible cutoff of Iranian oil exports. With their internationally crucial oil production facilities lining the western banks of the Gulf, along with other vulnerable infrastructure like power and water stations, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are also most vulnerable to any outbreak of hostilities.

“They don’t want to confront (Iran) because they are on the front line,” said Shahram Chubin, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International peace in Washington.

The Saudis have avoided getting on board publicly with Washington’s sanctions drive, though they have made efforts.

In recent Riyadh talks they have sought to persuade leaders of India and China, major customers for both Iranian and Saudi oil, to help put pressure on Tehran.

According to an unconfirmed Washington Post report, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal travelled to Beijing early this month to discuss the issue.

“We think that China can pressure the Iranians more and more for a solution,” said Alani.

Saudis have also repeatedly said they have a spare oil production capacity of four million barrels a day — more than 40 percent above current output — that could replace interrupted Iranian oil exports. Other Gulf states, notably the United Arab Emirates, are also reported to have promised to up oil production if the markets need it. Saudis support but still distrust the US approach, thinking it will simply provoke Tehran, said Chubin.

“I think they are sceptical about US ability to marshall adequate support for sanctions,” he said.

But, he added, “They want it both ways, they don’t want to be identified with US policy.” The Gulf states will go along if they think Washington is truly committed, he added. “Dubai and the others will do it if the US convinces them it is serious,” he said. US credibility on the issue took a blow in the past week when the New York Times reported that Washington has awarded more than 107 billion dollars in payments to foreign and US companies doing business in Iran despite existing US sanctions.

The Gulf states have offered few of their own ideas publicly except to pursue negotiations.

Cryptically, during Clinton’s visit to Riyadh on February 15, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal criticised sanctions as too slow.

“Sanctions are a long-term solution,” Saud said. “We see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat ... We need an immediate resolution.”

Did he mean that Riyadh backed a US or Israeli surgical strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, some asked.

One interpretation was that Riyadh sees that immediate progress on the Israeli-Palestinian problem would remove an arena where Iran projects its regional power and tests Riyadh’s, supporting radical groups like Hamas and Hizbullah that the Saudis oppose.

“More important to us is the Iranian intervention in Arab affairs,” said Mansour al-Mansour, head of the Centre for Strategic Studies, a government-linked think-tank in Riyadh. “It’s more realistic to focus on what is causing instability around us.”

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